Fenrir Research · Climate Intelligence
A decision-support terminal: where ENSO is, where it is heading, and what it means for India. Every chart carries an analyst read, not just data.
Command Header · the ten-second read
Current ENSO State
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Regime Score
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ENSO Lifecycle Position
Is the ocean warming — and is the atmosphere agreeing?
An El Niño needs both a warming ocean (the energy) and an atmosphere that couples to it (the sustaining feedback). Many forecasts fail because the atmosphere never couples. These tabs track both halves.
Tap to switch metric
Where is ENSO heading — and how much do forecasters agree?
Five major centres, aggregated. The consensus gauge shows blended peak-window probability; the agency table shows where each centre sits and how confident it is. Disagreement is itself information.
Peak-Window Consensus · Dec 2026–Feb 2027
Expected Peak Intensity
| Agency | Outlook | El Niño Prob. | Peak Intensity | Duration | Confidence |
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12-Month Consensus Timeline · Monthly El Niño Probability
What does this mean for the Indian monsoon?
A dashboard within the dashboard. The Super El Niño phase peaks after the monsoon ends, so the seasonal distribution matters more than the headline strength.
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How does ENSO become a real-world consequence?
ENSO matters when it transmits into the real economy. For India in 2026 the dominant channel is not drought — the reservoir buffer is adequate — but food inflation. The lead card tracks that channel; the grid tracks the others.
Supporting risk channels
Which past years most resemble current conditions?
Current ONI, RONI, subsurface heat, SOI and forecast path compared against every ENSO cycle since 1950. Closest analogs shown with their eventual outcomes. Similarity is indicative, not predictive — the historical sample is small.
| Year | Similarity | ENSO Outcome | Peak ONI | Monsoon | % LPA | Note |
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Where does this come from — and how reliable is it?
Every figure is compiled from official meteorological and research sources. Reliability reflects each source's authority and update cadence for the specific metrics used here.